More April Showers
A front laid out across the mid-Atlantic will lift north, bringing showers and maybe steady rain.
This front moves north of the area today, so we'll have "some" dry weather, but temps won't rise much past the mid 60s.
A secondary low will form east of the mountains. Instability will be weak, but as the upper trough digs we'll see increasing winds.
Storms will likely develop as winds back around to the south and perhaps a few breaks in the cloud deck develop. The result, the possibility of strong storms Monday afternoon with the front.
Rains could average around an inch and will clear east tonight with drier air pushing in from the west.
Expect cooler temps in the 50's by Tuesday.
Lots Of Clouds, Lower Temperatures
What a swing! We were at 80 degrees yesterday, but today we are only in the 50s with a stiff breeze off the water. That is keeping the clouds around and the temperatures down. Farther inland, clouds have been breaking up and temperatures have been going up. It got into the 60s for Cumberland and close in Hagerstown, but that is still nearly a 15 degree swing since yesterday.
All of this was because of a cold front that moved through overnight. It had rain and some thunderstorms with it, generally dropping about .50" to .75" worth of rain along the way. This front did move offshore today, but another band of rain and drizzle followed this afternoon. It passed just to the south of Annapolis and then moved over to the Eastern Shore. This band will move away tonight, but there is much more where that came from. A new storm will move our way later this evening.
The new storm will move our way from the southwest, bringing a few different waves of rain and eventually thunderstorms. There will be rounds of rain tonight into the morning commute, then on and off through the day tomorrow. By tomorrow afternoon, the cold front part of the storm will move our way with thunderstorms - and some may be strong to even severe. Right now it looks like the biggest threat with these storm would be high winds over 60 MPH. We will obviously keep an eye on it for you and bring you any watches or warnings that may come out tomorrow both here on WJZ.com and on the tv side at WJZ. The thunderstorms and accompanying cold front will move offshore tomorrow night, but some rain and drizzle could linger right into Tuesday before we are finally done with this storm.
Temperatures may get up into the 60s briefly tomorrow as the winds shift more around to the south with the approaching storm. However, another round of cool air will follow for Tuesday with highs only in the 50s. It will stay cool on Wednesday even though some sunshine will return. Then, like the last few weeks, we are going to really warm it up for the end of the week.
People often ask why the same thing happens every week for weeks at a time - essentially, why we can get stuck in these weather patterns. Well, a lot of it is based on the long waves that run through the jetstream. They are called Rossby waves. They are the huge troughs and ridges (dips and hills) that build and run through the jetstream. They typically run on 5-7 day patterns. So, when we cycle through one, the next one comes in about another 5-7 days. So, the cooler starts to the week have been giving way to warmer and drier ends to the week. This is not a guarantee, nor will it necessarily continue, but we are obviously stuck in this pattern right now. Just a little FYI.
Rainy Days Ahead
Good morning... thunderstorms that rolled across the Appalachians weakened as they met the low-level clouds and stable air over the coastal plain, and what we're left with is a slow-moving area of showers extending down the Hudson Valley, through the Delaware Valley and heading down toward the Delmarva peninsula.
This shower activity has already weakened and cleared east of the city, but we'll have to contend with a few showers out toward Delmarva today, owing to the easterly flow around a weak area of low pressure off the northern Outer Banks.
While a little drier air will be advecting in above 800 mb, we'll have plenty of clouds in the lower levels of the atmosphere, which combined with easterly winds will hold highs in the 58-64 range today.
Tonight, that weakened front laid out across the mid-Atlantic will lift back north, bringing showers or maybe a steadier rain. This front will lift well north of the area tomorrow, so we'll have some dry weather, but temps won't rise much past the mid 60s owing to a cool southeasterly flow. A low pressure area will be forming in the Tennessee Valley late today that heads up through the eastern Great Lakes tonight into tomorrow, and a secondary low will form east of the mountains in the mid-Atlantic tomorrow.
Instability will be weak, but as the upper trough digs we'll see strengthening wind fields. Instability, though very marginal, will likely develop as winds back around to the south and perhaps a few breaks in the cloud deck develop. As a result, it is probably wise to mention the possibility of strong storms tomorrow afternoon with the front.
Rains with the front - averaging around an inch - will clear east tomorrow night, with drier air pushing in from the west. The past few runs of the global models suggest that the upper low over eastern Canada will be farther north than we'd been calling for yesterday, so the forecast has been adjusted in a milder, drier direction. Tuesday and Wednesday we're going with highs of 61 and 62, and temps aloft will be cool, but there will be a downsloping west wind, so I could see these ending up on the low side. The lower part of the trough will probably be too far south to spark any showers on Tuesday. Thursday, a weak boundary could form along the baroclinic zone on the south side of the low, helped by a max embedded in the jet, but most of the clouds and any potential wet weather is forecast to stay north of Baltimore.
Troughing moving into the central part of the nation will force ridging into the East on Friday and Saturday, bringing a return to milder conditions as the front retreats north.
Cold Front Coming
After another beautiful day, there is a cold front on the way.
Some rain and scattered thunderstorms are accompanying a cold front as it moves west to east across the state. There were some stronger thunderstorms along the front in the mountains of Virginia and West Virginia earlier today, but nothing is severe as of 8 PM this evening. This front will take through the night to cross the state, so there will probably be some leftover rain in the early morning hours - mainly from the city eastward. The front will move offshore tomorrow afternoon, but there will be a lot of clouds that linger through the day.
With more clouds around and the cold front passing through, it will be a cooler day tomorrow compared to where we have been lately. We will only top out in the low to mid 60s for highs. Then the temperatures will continue to run below average the next few days as another storm rolls through on Monday and brings in even cooler air. Highs may not get out of the 50s on Tuesday behind the second storm.
As for the second storm, it will be a stronger one for us. Some rain will accompany the warm front late Sunday night or Monday morning, before the cold front comes through Monday afternoon. The cold front could bring some strong to possibly even severe thunderstorms with it when it marches through Maryland. It will move offshore eventually Tuesday.
A warm-up will kick in later in the week. That is ahead of the next storm moving our way either late in the week or over the weekend.
April Showers Continue
We definitely need these April showers, but the timing is a bit off. Weekend plans will be affected as high pressure is slipping off the New England coast.
With a front moving east from the Midwest, there will be a couple of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon in western and even central MD.
A front lifting from the south will be nearby throughout the day, so there can be some clouds and a shower at any time. A cold front will move into western MD during the afternoon and night, probably accompanied by a pretty good line of thunderstorms.
Sunday we have lingering moisture, especially toward the shore and off to the south. Expect near 74 / 54 today and 65 / 54 Sunday.
Pleasing Temps in Maryland
Friday the high will move off the east coast and that frontal boundary down to the south will start to move north as a warm front behind it.
This will cause some clouds to move into the area Friday afternoon followed by maybe a shower or thunderstorm in spots Friday night.
There can actually be a shower or thunderstorm Saturday afternoon or evening in the central part of the state but most local rainfall likely holds off until after dark.
On Saturday the warm front will probably be moving off to the northeast, but at the same time a cold front will be approaching from the west.
Friday expect highs and lows near 78 / 54.
Still Warm
Warm air is going to stick around through the end of the week. We will top out in the upper 70s to near 80 both today and tomorrow. By the weekend, we will start to cool it down again as a new storm moves our way.
There is the slight chance for a pop up shower Friday afternoon, but most of us will not see anything until the front moves our way later Saturday with more showers and possibly some thunderstorms. This front will get out of here Sunday morning, allowing cooler air to move in. But even the cooler air will be close to normal.
It's Warm!
The warmup is underway. By 2 p.m. BWI-Marshall was already up to 72 degrees, and we are only going to get warmer as the week goes on.
A front passing north of us is causing some clouds today and may even produce a shower or two in the western mountains. But most of the front's activity is moving through PA and is not our problem. That front gets out of here for tomorrow, allowing high pressure to take over. It will be a beautiful afternoon with temperatures rising to the upper 70s/near 80! Then the high moves offshore Friday, but is still close enough to give us another beauty with similar warmth. At the same time, a front will be approaching from the west.
This new front has an outside chance of producing a late-day shower Friday, but most people will not see anything at all. However, the front moves through the state late Saturday with more showers and even some thunderstorms. This front will get out of here Sunday, taking the warmest of the air with it. Even though it will cool down, highs will still top out in the 60s. There could be another round of showers or rain Monday.